Strategic mistake of Korean government’s non-participation in Trans-Pacific Partnership

Strategic mistake of Korean government’s non-participation in Trans-Pacific Partnership. October. 05, 2015 07:18. .

The ministerial talk of 12 founding countries for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that began on Sept. 30 (local time) in Atlanta, the U.S. is about to be signed soon. Although the talk had been postponed twice due to different stances on the three final issues of rules of origin of automobile parts, market access for dairy products and patent term for medicine, the TPP agreement is highly likely to be reached before Sunday deadline. As failing to reach a final agreement this time doesn’t mean a bungled attempt in negotiation, measures should be taken to cope with de-facto TPP initiation.

The TPP is called “mega FTA” as it includes 12 multilateral free trade agreement counterparts, including the U.S. and Japan, and other countries in the Pacific region such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The TPP also signals that the U.S. and Japan are leading to launch a new global trade order and establish an economic block against the rapid rise of China’s economy. The fact that U.S. President Barack Obama stressed in his address last February by saying that the U.S. has to make sure the United States, not China, is the one writing this century`s rules for the world`s economy,” which shows that the TPP is aiming at shifting global economic rules.

Despite expressing its interest in the TPP in November 2013, Seoul has yet made any move for the next step in “declaring its official participation declaration.” The government says, “We don’t have to rush into the TPP since out of the 12 TPP members, ten nations excluding Japan and Mexico have already signed the FTAs with Korea. It wouldn’t be late to take part in it when the agreement is reached,” which is not quite convincing. As Japan is already in it, Korea could be left alone in establishing the new global economic order due to its absence in the TPP.

A preliminary bilateral discussion between Korea and the 12 TPP members followed by an official bilateral discussion should be made to negotiate the terms for the participation, and an approval from the all 12 members are required for Korea to belatedly take part in the TPP as it is not one of the TPP founding countries. It is highly likely that the founding members make sensitive demand of opening a rice market in return for Korea’s TPP participation and individual negotiation with Tokyo expects bumpy road ahead. “The Korean government’s non-participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in its early stage was a strategic mistake,” senior fellow Jeffrey J. Schott at the Peterson Institute for International Economics remarked at a seminar in Washington on Sept. 28.

Korea’s non-participation in TPP would cost high price not just in its economy but in diplomatic security as well. “TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier," said U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter last April, demonstrating the reality that strategic interest of alliance can’t be discussed separately with economy and security. It seems that the Park Geun-hye administration’s notion that has been inclined to Beijing while lingering on U.S.-led TPP participation would bring about not a small aftermath.