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Seoul must reconsider strategy to counter N.K. submarine missile threat

Seoul must reconsider strategy to counter N.K. submarine missile threat

Posted May. 11, 2015 07:15,   

한국어

North Korea’s underwater test firing of submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is a serious provocation that could disrupt security environment on the Korean Peninsula. If SLBM, which the North claims to have been successfully launched, is actually deployed, South Korea will face the worst case situation of being under threat of nuclear attacks not only over the skies and via land but also from the sea. Kim Jong Un, who inspected test firing of the missile, threatened the South, saying, “If we start production of strategic SLBMs and if they are deployed in actual fight, we will effectively come to hang a time bomb that could explode any time in the back of the enemy forces."

The North’s tactic to use submarines for surprise attacks of the South was confirmed through the sinking of the South Korean naval corvette Cheonan by the North’s torpedo attack. A submarine that penetrates underwater is difficult to detect and block. The East Sea, where waters can be as deep as 1,000 meters or more even at a location near the shore, is a haven of submarines. The scenario in which the North deploys submarines loaded with SLBMs in the East Sea and attacks South Korea is truly dreadful.

The South Korean military judges that the North’s test firing was a shooting test meant for projection from underwater into the air, and that the flying distance amounted to hundreds of meters. Some analysts say that if an SLBM is to be threatening, the North needs to secure a 3,000 ton-class submarine, but the North has not reached that level just yet. However, because experts predict that the North will likely to develop SLBMs into real weapons within as early as one to two years or five to six years, the South Korean government should step up preparation to counter them. The North has continued threatening the South and staging provocative military activities in recent months. If the South only regards as empty threatening gestures the North’s testing firing of SLBM, threatening to launch targeted strikes at South Korean naval vessels deployed in island areas in the Yellow Sea, and launch of ship-to-ship missile in the East Sea, which were conducted almost simultaneously, it could get into a big trouble like the Cheonan’s sinking.

The South Korean government should make it absolutely clear that if the North takes another provocative action, Seoul will not sloppily counter again as it did in the North’s sinking of the Cheonan and attacks on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong. The South also needs a stern response that calls for switching its defense-focused strategy into one of offensives. The North’s testing of ballistic missile is a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions as stated by the U.S. State Department. By collaborating with allies including the U.S., the South Korean government should make all-out diplomatic efforts to ensure that the U.N. Security Council can start efforts to deter the North’s bid to increase nuclear capability.

The South’s launch of a project to develop a nuclear submarine aimed at efficient monitoring of the North’s strategic submarines could be another alternative measure. The South should also proactively consider as priority strengthening of its anti-submarine early warning system by increasing the number Aegis destroyers and deploying them around-the-clock in the East Sea, the South Sea, and the Yellow Sea, while introducing next-generation naval reconnaissance planes with advanced sonar performance.