Will S. Korea stand by and watch U.S.-Japan alliance evolving?

The first question that South Korean journalists asked visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter after a meeting with his South Korean counterpart Han Min-koo was about a controversial plan to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system to South Korea. Carter reassured South Koreans by saying, "THAAD was not on the agenda today ... This is the program that is in production in the U.S." Apparently conscious of South Koreans` concerns that the U.S. was on Japan`s side over the regional history row between Seoul and Tokyo, he said, "We have a lot of respect for historical legacy issues in this region and we think it`s important." Carter added that the U.S. is hopeful for healing and reconciliation.

Although the top Pentagon official avoided direct mention of the THAAD issue, he made remarks indicative of the actual purpose of his visit to Seoul. "On the peninsula, the deterrence and readiness are at a premium," he said, stressing Washington`s plan to deploy high-tech forces for the security of the Korean Peninsula and other parts of the Asia-Pacific region. He added that alliances in the region play key roles in the U.S. rebalance to Asia. While South Korea is paying full attention to the THAAD issue, the U.S. is establishing an unprecedentedly strong alliance with Japan for a balance of power in Asia and weighing whether to include South Korea for a trilateral alliance.

The U.S. and Japan plan to hold a U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee meeting in Washington on April 27 to complete a revision of bilateral defense guidelines. The revised guidelines would expand the bilateral military cooperation to natural disasters, cyberspace and space, allowing Japan to become an "ordinary state" capable of waging war. China is on their common watch. The U.S.-Japan summit on April 28 and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe`s address a joint session of U.S. Congress are historic events of showing off the culmination of the Washington-Tokyo alliance. Whether Abe will offer a sincere apology for Japan`s past history as the first Japanese prime minister to address U.S. Congress is a matter of Seoul`s interest but not a major agenda between Washington and Tokyo.

If Seoul chooses to cooperate with Washington in security and with Beijing in economy while avoiding strengthening the South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation system, it would consequently play into the hands of China, which tries to undermine the trilateral ties. In his speech Tuesday at Arizona State University, the U.S. defense chief said of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP): "In terms of our rebalance in the broadest sense, passing TPP is as important to me as another aircraft carrier." The remark is a reminder of the reality in which we cannot discuss allies` strategic interest by separating economy from security.

The U.S. is seeking an additional agreement going beyond last year`s military intelligence sharing pact among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo. It seems that what Washington has in mind is the system in which the three allies can directly share military intelligence like the failed Seoul-Tokyo General Security of Military Information Agreement. As such a comprehensive agreement would allow the three allies to jointly cope with China as well as North Korea, Seoul has no choice but to agonize over it. Seoul must make a decision by determining which countries it will cooperate with to defend its own national interest.

South Korea needs to make a paradigm shift from its fragmentary diplomacy toward the U.S., China and Japan. It is urgent to draw up a diplomatic strategy that would go beyond the geopolitical limitations by looking far ahead in the situation of Northeast Asia and the world and perform accurate analyses. In reality, it is inevitable to separate history issues from security cooperation. It is necessary to continue to strengthen cooperation with Japan in terms of economy and security while thoroughly responding to Tokyo`s history distortion. Tenser relations between South Korea and Japan would inevitably deal a blow to the U.S. strategy toward East Asia, which would offset the strategic value of Seoul-Washington alliance. South Korea must properly understand and proactively deal with the world strategies of the U.S., China and Japan in order to ride over the heavy seas surrounding the peninsula.