Will unified candidacy be as powerful as in 2002 pres. election? . NOVEMBER 22, 2012 05:10. . The impact of a unified candidacy between main opposition party runner Moon Jae-in and independent Ahn Cheol-soo for the Dec. 19 presidential election is considered hard to predict. The question is if a single candidate will be as powerful as that between Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon in 2002 or will have limited impact because supporters of a losing candidate tend to shun the unified candidate.

○ 2002 again?

If the unified candidacy turns out to be as powerful this time as that of 2002, the single candidate could see his share of votes break the 50-percent barrier right after the candidacies are merged.

In a Dong-A Ilbo opinion poll conducted Nov. 5, 2002, then Grand National Party candidate Lee Hoi-chang showed an approval rating of 35.6 percent, far ahead of Chung with 21.1 percent and Roh with 17.7 percent. In a poll on the assumption that Roh would become the unified candidate, Lee’s figure rose to 41.4 percent while Roh`s shot up to 31.6 percent.

Immediately after Roh became the unified candidate Nov. 25 that year, however, he showed an approval rating of 42.2 percent, higher than Lee`s 35.2 percent. Roh saw his rating rise by 24.5 percentage points after the merger.

Unlike Lee, who failed to expand his support base and kept just traditional supporters, Roh absorbed Chung’s supporters and undecided voters alike in addition getting help from his support base.

This year, the top three presidential candidates show approval rating patterns similar to those of 2002. According to a poll conducted by Research and Research from Sunday through Tuesday, ruling Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye led the race with 43.2 percent, trailed by Ahn with 24.0 percent and Moon with 20.8 percent. In 2002, the combined ratings of Roh and Chung were similar to that of Lee. On the assumption of a one-on-one race, Park was slightly ahead as well as if the race became neck and neck with either of the two rivals.

The impact of a merged candidacy depends on how many voters who support the losing candidate will back the unified choice. Eight days before Roh and Chung unified their candidacies in favor of Roh, just 43.2 percent of Chung’s supporters said they would vote for Roh, and another 20.3 percent said they would still vote for Chung anyway. Once Roh became the single candidate, however, not only Chung supporters but also undecided voters supported Roh.

This year, opinion polls also indicate that whoever ends up as the single opposition candidate, 30 or 40 percent of supporters of either Ahn or Moon will not support the one who wins the candidacy. Still, it is too difficult to predict how the voters will react to the result.

○ Learning effect could limit impact

Many experts say the single candidacy will not be as powerful as in 2002 mainly because of the “learning effect.”

“To overcome the learning effect, the two candidates should`ve showed voters prospects for a change in politics,” said Kim Chang-kwon, CEO of Hangil Research. “Instead, they reiterated old politics characterized by a tug-of-war, disappointing voters. The idea of merging candidacies was good but shows no signs of bringing about the convention effect.”

Park Won-ho, a political science professor at Seoul National University, said, “To attract undecided voters, candidates should continue to make big news. In 2002, the process of merging the Roh-Chung candidate generated a series of big news. A merged candidacy this time will not likely become a storm as big as in that of 2002 because the only big news is the result of the merger deal.”

Among other differences, Park has a more solid support base than Lee and there are fewer undecided voters than 10 years ago. In 2002, Lee’s rating was fixed at around 35 percent in a race with multiple candidates, while about 20 percent of the voters were undecided. This year, however, Park’s ratings have reached 40-45 percent and just one in 10 voters are undecided. This is why many experts forecast that the convention effect, which grows bigger when many undecided voters flock to one candidate, will be weaker than in 2002.

○ TV debate a key factor in candidacy merger

As Moon and Ahn have little differences in their policies and are in a neck-and-neck race, Wednesday’s TV debate will likely have a significant impact on the result of an opinion poll to be used to determine the single candidate.

Polling experts say voters who will potentially be affected by the debate are undecided in addition to combined supporters of the two candidates, who account for around 45 percent of the constituency. Though pro-Park forces might choose a candidate less competitive against the Saenuri candidate, they could be excluded in the poll for the single candidacy.

Other variables are whether Ahn’s and Moon’s supporters will shift to the other candidate and how many undecided voters will decide to support either of them. Polling experts say the TV debate will likely affect their ratings by just a couple of percentage points because of just one debate. Yet such a small expected change can prove crucial in a neck-and-neck race.

“It`s not common for TV debates to cause voters to change a candidate they support,” said Yoon Hee-woong, head of research at the Korea Society Opinion Institute. “In the case of Moon’s and Ahn’s supporters, however, the support is not as strong as Park`s, and many of them are strategically supporting one candidate who could beat Park. In other words, the TV debate can affect the process of selecting the unified candidate because of great flexibility.”