Are Sino-Japanese ties doomed over islands dispute?

The Sino-Japanese conflict over the disputed Senkaku islands (known as Diaoyu in China) is escalating. China sent a surveillance vessel and 2,000 Chinese fishing boats are waiting in the territory near the islands, which are raising fears of a bilateral naval confrontation. Senkaku, or uninhabited islands covering 6.3 kilometers, is the frontline of a nationalistic and resources war between the two countries. Scientists say below the islands are a large reserves of oil and gas. Others claim that the volume of fossil fuels could be seven billion tons, or equivalent to that of the oil field in the Black Sea.

Another factor that caused the confrontation is the globalization of domestic politics. The Noda administration of Japan is unlikely to win in the general elections in November because of the prime minister`s falling popularity. The easiest way for the administration to win over voters is fueling nationalism by heightening the territorial conflicts with China and Korea. Beijing is in a power struggle before the launch of its fifth-generation leadership. Voices say Chinese President Hu Jintao is using the sovereignty dispute with Japan to maintain his position in the Central Military Commission, which controls military issues, before stepping down as president. The New York Times said, “President Hu tends to condone and encourage the escalating conflict with Japan with the (Chinese) military because he is concerned about a weaker political ground for him after he hands over power to his predecessor.”

Tokyo dared to nationalize the Senkaku Islands by taking advantage of nationalism and the stance of ultranationalists. It needs to pledge no further aggravation of the situation over the disputed islands with Beijing. Like any other country, China will go to war when land is involved, having done so with India in 1962 and Vietnam in 1979. Beijing confronted with the former Soviet Union for sovereignty over the Amur and Ussuri rivers in 1969. When Beijing and Tokyo clash over Senkaku, they will seriously threaten peace and stability in Northeast Asia.

Beijing needs to calm down and control itself. Chinese protesters displayed hatred toward Japan with large-scale protests in 100 Chinese cities Monday. If Beijing fails to control violent protests and large-scale military rallies at sea, the world will fear that China might seek hegemony based on its economic and military power. Beijing cannot risk more countries allying themselves with Washington.

Both China and Japan should recognize their responsibility vis-a-vis world peace and stability in Asia and be careful to prevent worsening the situation.