[Opinion] China’s Next Province?

On October 15 2005, North Korea announced its relationship with China is in its “golden days” in its state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun. This came right after the communist country completed a China-funded glass manufacturing facility with an annual production capacity of 6.4 million tons in Daean, South Pyong-an Province. When Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Pyongyang two weeks later, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il paid him one of his rare courteous compliments, saying, “I express my deepest gratitude to the party, government, and people of China.” North Korean experts noted this with great interest and anticipated that the economic integration of North Korea into China would be accelerated.

It has been five months now, and there are rumors in the border city of Dandong that China is planning to integrate North Korea’s economy by linking it to the development of the three northeastern Chinese provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilung.

Some observers say that China’s economic effort is aimed at integrating North Korea into China as its fourth northeastern province. If the speculation is true, it would be an economic version of China’s attempt to claim the history of the ancient Korean kingdom of Goguryeo that once dominated Northeast Asia.

Trade volume between North Korea and China reached a record high $1.58 billion last year. China now makes up 50 percent of North Korea’s total trade as of 2005, up from 27 percent in 2001. China’s investment in North Korea, which was virtually nonexistent in 2000, is estimated to have reached $50 million. It also supplies 80 percent of North Korea’s oil. In 2005, grain imports to North Korea from China increased by a whopping 300 percent from the previous year. It is clear then that North Korea’s economy is heavily dependent upon, if not yet incorporated into, the Chinese economy. Without Chinese aid, it seems incapable of sustaining itself.

China may now be the only recourse that North Korea can rely on when it is cornered by financial sanctions imposed by the U.S. This is why some observers wishfully expect that Pyongyang follows Beijing’s example of economic reform. If that happens, however, it is doubtful if people in North Korea, after witnessing the prosperity of their southern neighbor, will tolerate the Kim Jong Il regime until the economic gap is resolved. And this is why Pyongyang is reluctant to open up its door even though it feels the necessity of doing so.

Han Ki-heung, Editorial Writer, eligius@donga.com