Allies Split Over ICBM Test Response

Allies Split Over ICBM Test Response. June. 20, 2006 03:00. by Yeon-Wook Jung jyw11@donga.com taewon_ha@donga.com.

Surrounding North Korea’s preparations to test launch their intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Taepodong 2 or an upgraded model of it, delicate shades of opinions are surfacing among the three countries concerned: South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. Given that the three countries declared with one accord that “North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is unacceptable” when North Korea declared their possession of nuclear weapons in February last year through a statement by the Foreign Affairs Ministry, their close cooperation seems to have been weakened.

“Countdown in Process” vs. “Continuous Watching”-

Authorities from the U.S. and Japan say that “it seems that the launches are now in countdown mode,” and are considering hard-line responses, such as referring the issue to the United Nations Security Council and imposing economic sanctions against North Korea. Some foreign news agencies even report military options that if North Korea launches a missile, the U.S. and Japan are ready to shoot it down.

On the other hand, the South Korean government is urging for continuous observation and more prudence. Seoul asserts that it’s not exactly clear for the time being whether it’s really a missile or just a space launch vehicle (SLV) to launch a satellite into an orbit, what North Korea’s status on the preparation is, and when the launch will actually take place. Some governmental officials even complain that some foreign news sources are reporting “reckless speculation.” It has been reported that the government’s official position is although symptoms in North Korea appear to be arrangements for an SLV or missile launch, they can’t clearly conclude whether it’s launch preparation or not. Similarly, against foreign and domestic conjectures that the launch is imminent since North Korea injected the vehicle with liquid fuel, the government thinks that “the fuel is removable,” according to reports.

Opinions of how to respond are even more distinctive. While the U.S. and Japan put emphasis on military and security aspects such as self-defense, South Korea is pursuing political and diplomatic solutions on the premise that “North Korea well knows that they have more to lose than gain for the missile launch.”

Why the shades?-

Experts point out the essential difference between nuclear weapons and missiles. As the existence of nuclear weapons seriously affects the interests of all three countries regardless of their geographic position, a cooperative response was possible. However, missiles affect each country differently depending on how long their effective ranges are and which country these ranges include.

Japan, included in the effective range of Taepodong 1 which was launched in 1998, went into an extreme panic and is expressing deep anxiety over this situation again. The U.S. is also reacting to the situation by saying that they can’t tolerate launch preparations of a missile that could possibly reach their own territory.

On the other hand, South Korea is rather inwardly relaxed compared to the U.S. or Japan since the North Korean missile is not aimed at the South. As for the responses once the launch takes place, a government official said, “If sanctions are imposed, the U.S. and Japan have nothing to lose, but we have a lot. It will damage our national interest if foreign investors leave due to political instability, not to mention the setbacks in the three major inter-Korean cooperative operations, including the Gaesong Industrial Complex.”