China’s North Korea Options Limited

China’s North Korea Options Limited. July. 26, 2006 03:01. by Kang-Myoung Chang tesomiom@donga.com.

Chinese political experts say that South Korea seems to anticipate the significant role of China in influencing North Korea, but, in fact, Chinese influence on the communist country is extremely limited and, in turn, Beijing is also in a bind to choose an appropriate policy to deal with the North.

Park Chang-geun, a senior fellow of international affairs at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, attended an open debate held at Shilla Hotel in Seoul under the theme of “World and Northeast Asia Peace Forum” and said that China is now under international pressure to push the North more, but unfortunately, China has little understanding and knowledge about the reclusive country.

Park added that the fact that Beijing supported a U.N resolution against North Korea was a reflection of the dilemma facing Beijing, which sees the importance of relationship with Pyongyang but cannot only consider the relationship especially under the situation in which it has failed to persuade the North.

Park continued, “North Korean leaders have shown irrational thinking and unpredictable behaviors many times over the last decade. With North Korea’s misfortune record, Beijing now sees Pyongyang’s nuclear program offer an excuse to Japan to strengthen its missile defense system and bring about a new nuclear race among its neighboring Asian countries. Furthermore, the way North Korean leaders think is starting to be a concern.”

He also pointed out that it does not mean, however, that China is against the reclusive nation and that it will allow the Sino-communist relationship to deteriorate. China still has not removed the second clause in the China-North Korea Cooperation and Mutual Aid treaty, in which Beijing promises military support for the North when it is invaded by others. Lee Hong-pyo, a professor of international relations at the Kyushu University in Japan, analyzed that there are two approaches toward Pyongyang among the Chinese political circle. Some see China in itself as a mediator, but others view North Korea as a heavy burden on China.

Lee added, “Due to the strategic importance of the North, China’s so-called role as a mediator still carries more weight than the other approach even if the Stalinist country threatens regional security in Northeast Asia. However, a stance that blind support for North Korea will disadvantage China is gaining ground in some regions including Shanghai.”

Jang Jin-Pang, chief of Seoul for the Chinese Xinhua News Agency, said, “It is true that China can wield only limited influence on North Korea. The North did not listen to the opinions of Beijing before the missile launch and even China could not control the North when it proceeded with missiles. The need for a collective security system is so acute now in order to secure peace in the region as China alone cannot deter North Korea’s missile launch.”