Go to contents

Is S. Korea capable of intercepting incoming N. Korean ballistic missiles?

Is S. Korea capable of intercepting incoming N. Korean ballistic missiles?

Posted February. 04, 2016 07:19,   

Updated February. 04, 2016 07:21

한국어

North Korea informed the International Maritime Organization and other international agencies on Tuesday that it would launch its Kwangmyongsong earth surveillance satellite between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25. Pyongyang attempts to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the mainland U.S. under the pretext of a satellite launch, as it did in December 2012. The plan, which follows a January 6 nuclear test, seems to be Pyongyang's intention to show off its military might ahead of the seventh congress of its ruling Workers Party of Korea scheduled for May.

According to the North's plan, the first-phase propellent will likely fall on the waters about 80b miles off Gunsan and the fairing 50 miles west of Jeju Island, while the second-phase propellent on the waters 80 miles east of Manila, the Philippines. The South Korean government plans to issue warnings to aircrafts and ships navigating in nearby areas. There is little chance that the North Korea missile will pass through South Korean airspace, which horizontally spans over the Korean Peninsula, its adjacent islands, and the area over its territorial waters. There is no established international standard for vertical territory, which could include outer space.

The problem is that if the North launches a missile attack, it is extremely difficult to intercept it with the South's current defense system. According to a simulation demonstrated by Choi Bong-wan, a professor at the Graduate School of National Defense at Hannam University, in May 2014 at the National Assembly, a North Korean Rodong missile with a range of 1,000 kilometers carrying a 1-ton nuclear warhead reached Seoul in just 675 seconds (11 minutes and 15 seconds) after launch. The missile flew 551 seconds outside the atmosphere and 124 seconds within it. The PAC-3 missile to be introduced to the South starting this year is capable of intercepting an incoming missile for just one second at an altitude between 12 and 15 kilometers. In contrast, analyses show that the terminal high altitude area defense (THAAD) system can perform interception for 45 seconds at an altitude between 40 to 150 kilometers, and the SM-3 missile for 288 seconds at an altitude of 70 to 500 kilometers. This is why it is necessary to introduce the THAAD.

Japan has placed its Self Defense Forces on alert to shoot down any North Korean rocket if it enters Japan's territorial land, air space or waters because Tokyo has established multi-layered defense system including one capable of intercepting an incoming ballistic missile at an altitude of 160 kilometers above the sea. Seoul's Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, which to be established in the 2020s, is for defense at the lower altitude of 10 to 30 kilometers, about 10 years behind in Japan's system.

Although the Ministry of National Defense set aside 6 trillion won (4.9 billion U.S. dollars) and another 2.7 trillion won (2.2 billion dollars) for the establishment of the KAMD system, there are questions if the amounts are sufficient. It is reckless for South Korea to depend only on the United States for national defense. South Korea must urgently expand its independent self-defense capabilities to protect its freedom and prosperity.



한기흥기자 eligius@donga.com