Leaderless Korea adrift in the Trump era

Donald Trump, former real estate mogul, will be inaugurated as the 45th U.S. President on Friday (local time). Eight years ago, when President Barack Obama, the first African American president, the U.S. and the world were full of hopes and changes despite the worst ever financial crisis. But it is different now. The U.S. economy is recovering but there are concerns about and backlashes from a growing income gap, an anti-immigration sentiment and anger and conflicts over the existing order. Trump, a populist president, is showing that he is a strong man who says he would do everything he can to make America great again with protectionism for trade and the diplomacy of power for security.

The most challenging area will be the U.S.-China relationship. The U.S., the only superpower, is not going to allow China to challenge the U.S. in trade and security. Commerce Secretary nominee Wilbur Ross implied trade war and currency war with China, a country that takes away jobs from Americans and increases the U.S. trade deficit, calling the country is the “most protectionist” and it is resorting to “malicious trade tactics.” When Trump was president-elect, he raised doubts about the “One China policy” and made it clear that he would realize “America First policy” through strong military power and economic policies.

The Korean Peninsula where the two super powers will confront each other is likely to be the victim of “super insecurity” in the Trump era. The conflict and confrontations between the U.S. and China will threaten Korea’s policy of relying on the U.S. for security and China for the economy. Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a speech to the United Nations in Geneva on Wednesday, “We should ban nuclear weapons and ultimately thoroughly remove them to realize a nuclear-free world.” As Trump criticized that he can no longer tolerate China’s empty promises regarding China’s reluctant implementation of nuclear sanctions, President Xi counterattacked mentioning a “nuclear-free world,” the legacy of former President Barack Obama.

While coping with North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles, the Trump administration might request adjusting the Korea-U.S. alliance including defense spending for the U.S. forces in Korea. We should consider various pragmatic ideas that can be beneficial to us and increase cooperation with the Trump administration, going beyond just strengthening the Korea-U.S. alliance.

Under the Trump administration, Korea’s policy of relying on the U.S. for security and China for the economy might not work any longer. If the U.S. designates China as a currency manipulator, Korea could also be designated as one as it has a large trade surplus against the U.S. If a trade conflict between the U.S. and China deals a blow to China’s exports to the U.S., Korea’s indirect export to the U.S. through China will also be hit hard. President Trump may ask for a renegotiation over the free trade deal with the U.S. as he sees it is eroding jobs in the U.S.

The South Korean government need to stress the effect of the Korea-U.S. free trade deal to Washington based on a comprehensive analysis of Korean companies’ contribution to job creation in the U.S. We should be able to make them believe that maintaining a partnership with Korea is aligned with the Trump policy making America great.

We need a stable leadership so as not to lag behind in the midst of changes in the international community that is trying to find its own ways to survive in the Trump era. The absence of a leader should not continue for a long time. As long as the president is impeached, it is inevitable for Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn to take control in foreign affairs, security and economy and play a proactive role in the Trump era. South Korean presidential candidates should face the current situation and put the national interest first instead of making populist pledges. Strongmen around us – U.S. President Trump, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin – will not wait and care for Korea in the heartless world just because Korea’s president is not ready.