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Neighboring countries will not welcome China’s shuffling of leadership structure

Neighboring countries will not welcome China’s shuffling of leadership structure

Posted October. 26, 2016 07:09,   

Updated October. 26, 2016 07:20

한국어

As Chinese President Xi Jinping is gearing up for his second term in presidency, the sixth plenum of the 18th Communist Party of China's Central Committee opened on Monday in order to eval‎uate political developments during the first term of Xi (2012-2016). This year’s plenum, a preliminary meeting a year before the Congress Party, which is held once in every five years, will provide some opportunities to look into Xi’s plan for his second term in presidency (2016-2020). In regard to this year’s gathering of political leaders, it has been forecast that Chinese political officials will revise “the regulation on intra-party supervision” in 36 years and the current seven-member Politburo Standing Committee will be reshuffled to allow Xi to centralize his power in leadership. If this becomes true, massive ripple effects in Northeast Asia are unavoidable.

The People's Daily, the official newspaper of China's ruling Communist Party, wrote in its lengthy commentary titled “China’s Success Depends on the Communist Party’s Leadership,” published on the front page of its Monday edition, that a new rule is needed to be set in place to strengthen “core leadership” of China to usher in a new era. Some Chinese media sources began calling him a paramount leader, a nickname of Mao Zedong, as Xi has been committed to tackling corruption through a strong anti-corruption reform since he became the president. In the meantime, he has also been busy getting rid of his political opponents. The dominant view is that the Chinese rule of setting retirement age at 68 will be waived for the 63-year-old president this time and Xi will continue to be the president even after 2020.

It seems obvious that the world will face new dynamics in any events China has been involved in such as a hegemonic competition between the U.S. and China or political affairs among China and neighboring countries if Xi becomes the one and only leader of his country. One of the basic understandings in international politics is that a strong leader is prone to making arbitrary decisions and tensions with neighboring countries escalate. The Chinese communist party has proved its legitimacy through its pursuit of economic growth. However, the public will start to have some uneasy feelings to the Communist Party of China on the back of economic slowdown and wealth disparity. Against the backdrop of the public’s dissatisfaction, Chinese leaders would aim at evoking people’s patriotism or nationalism through conflicts with neighboring countries.

Xi has branded his diplomacy with neighboring countries with some fancy terms including amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness. On the other hand, in reality, China has exerted is power against its neighboring countries, reminding Sinocentrism, and engaged in conflicts with every neighbor. For example, China harshly criticized South Korea’s deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, and Beijing never sends any apology on the Chinese fishermen acting in Korean seas. Moreover, China continues to stand on the side of North Korea even after its nuclear threats. It is a clear-cut prediction that China will become more stubborn if Xi has more power in his hands.

China is seeking expansionary strategies, while the U.S. is unhappy with it. As the two countries’ tug of war continues, the Korea Peninsula will continue to be remained as a battlefield. Regardless of economic ties between South Korea and China, South Korean diplomatic officials need to be prepared for a series of changes the new leadership in China will make on diplomacy and security in Korea.



허문명논설위원 angelhuh@donga.com