What line will N. Korea take at May 6 party congress?

What line will N. Korea take at May 6 party congress?. April. 28, 2016 07:26. by 허문명논설위원 angelhuh@donga.com.

North Korea’s Korean Central Broadcasting Station reported Wednesday that the political bureau of the Workers' Party central committee decided to open the seventh party congress in Pyongyang on May 6. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will likely declare his solid leadership internally and externally and show off the nuclear and missile development, his only accomplishment, at the first party congress in 36 years. It is also highly likely that Pyongyang will make additional provocation by launching a ballistic missile or conducting the fifth nuclear test.

The South Korean military authorities said Wednesday that the North is preparing to conduct an artillery assault drill on a replica of the South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae in a move to escalate the cross-border tensions to a crest in the run-up to the party congress. At a time when the inter-Korean dialogue channels have all been cut off, the Korean Peninsula is in a touch-and-go situation in which an accidental military clash could happen any time.

Currently, chances are slim that the North will cave in to international sanctions and show its willingness for dialogue and compromise before or after the party congress. The U.S. Department of State said Tuesday it will consider another option if the North continues its nuclear missile provocations, indicating expanded sanctions that would include Chinese companies and individuals transacting with the North.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye also told a group of journalists on Tuesday that North Korea will face stronger sanctions and isolation should it make another provocation, vowing to squeeze Pyongyang harder in cooperation with the international community. While the North Korea sanctions will show effects with the lapse of time, they are not sufficient for leading Pyongyang to nuclear and missile abandonment. Even if China thoroughly carries out North Korea sanctions in compliance with the United Nations Security Council’s resolution, it is evident that Beijing will not implement the sanctions until Pyongyang breathes its last breath.

U.S. President Barack Obama said Tuesday his country could "destroy North Korea with our arsenals," but its proximity to ally South Korea should be considered. He made the remarks while stressing the superiority of the U.S. deterrence against the North, but they could also mean that South Korea is held hostage by the North with its nuclear weapons. However, Obama did not mean that Washington would not act at all in order to protect the hostage no matter how provocative Pyongyang gets.

Some observers predict that through the upcoming party congress, North Korea, which declared itself to be a nuclear-possessing country in its constitution in 2012, will announce a “nuclear doctrine,” in which the leadership lines are presented with the premise of possessing nuclear weapons. Now that it is clear Pyongyang will not give up its nuclear weapons just because of sanctions, we need a concrete action plan that would deter the North from conducting additional nuclear tests or launch missiles.