Missile launch and Big Bang's performance

Right after North Korea's second nuclear test in 2006, I had a chance to have talks with Emanuel Todd in Paris. The French scholar is famous for his prediction in the 1970s of the collapse of the former Soviet Union. But he also forecasted the decline of the U.S. in his book "After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order” released in 2002.

Despite saying that Todd could not predict the future of North Korea because he was not well aware of the North, he said the Stalinist country would collapse before deploying its nuclear weapons for combat. As there are no signs of the North’s collapse at this point, I wish to hear what he thinks now. In any case, what I was surprised while talking with him was the fact that he constantly recommended Japan to seek nuclear armament.

Uneven distribution of nuclear weapons is a truly scary thing. Nuclear bombs were used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan because only the U.S. was possessing nuclear weapons. In the Cold War era between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, neither of them used the nuclear weapons. India and Pakistan have been sitting at the table of peace since arming themselves with nuclear weapons. Todd suggested that in East Asia, while North Korea could be an exception, China should not be the only country that possesses nuclear weapons. He indicated that Japan should also own nuclear weapons.

I explained to him that the people of Japan, the world’s only country that was bombed with nuclear weapons, have strong objection towards nuclear weapons, but he said Japan should overcome it. A big structural problem with Japan is that it is surrounded by two giant countries, namely the U.S. and China. As evidenced in the Iraq War, the U.S. often seeks to resort to military might, while China diverts people’s discontent towards its various social problems to outside the country by banking on "anti-Japanese nationalism.” Accordingly, Todd indicated that even just to ensure that Japan keeps China in check and secures independence from the U.S., Tokyo should possess nuclear weapons, and this is the truly way for Japan to prevent from being embroiled in war.

In France, President Charles de Gaulle initiated efforts to possess nuclear weapons after the World War II. Todd said France does not depend on nuclear weapons owned by the U.S. and the U.K. because the country had been invaded several times. If Japan, whose neighboring countries still have bitter memories about its invasion into Asia, possesses nuclear weapons, however, negative effects would be unfathomable and arms race could happen inevitably. I refuted Emanuel Todd saying that it is Japan’s role to urge nuclear arms reduction by promoting "denuclearization," but in any case, my talks with the French scholar was a truly exciting experience.

In the wake of North Korea’s provocations through nuclear test and missile launch, some South Koreans are suggesting the need for their nation to own nuclear weapons, including a leading daily's editorial earnestly demanding Seoul's nuke possession. Given the reality that no one can control North Korea, their claim is understandable. While Japan already accumulated highly enriched uranium that could be converted into nuclear weapons, South Korea is not even allowed to possess it, apparently elevating the sense of nervousness among South Koreans.

However, it is completely ill-advised to think that Japan is grinning behind misfortune of a neighbor due to differing stances, which was suggested in an expression‎ in the editorial. However strongly potential Japan might be, a nuclear armed country will inevitably run the risk of dispute with the U.S., and the Japan-U.S. security treaty could also be on shaky ground. South Korea and Japan are in the same situation wherein they hardly have any choice to make and instead should depend on U.S. nuclear weapons.

Others raise questions whether North Koreans will be using unclear weapons against the same ethnic group of (South) Koreans on the Korean Peninsula. A science fiction suggesting that inter-Korea developed nuclear weapons are fired towards Japan became a best seller book in South Korea. In other words, Japan, which feels that it is most at risk, is hardly in a position to "grin." What is important is the fact that South Korea and Japan share strong sense of threat and nervousness right now.

Big Bang, the flagship band of K-pop music, has appeared on a Japanese TV after a long time, as if symbolizing improving Seoul-Tokyo ties. The band, which released an album in Japan in four years, sang new songs and held friendly chats with Japanese entertainers, who are also their fans, significantly elevating amicable mood.

News reports in South Korea and Japan are heavily concentrated on the North Korean nuclear issue, Big Bang’s performance was a scene effectively displaying warm atmosphere. In reality when seen from a longer term perspective, however, youth cultures of the two nations that allow such broadcasting performances could be the strongest deterrence to the North’s threats. If Pyongyang collapses or seeks social transformation one day, the driving force for this will not be physical force but aspiration for prosperity and freedom in our society.

We hope to enable young North Koreans to appreciate this sense of joy sooner rather than later. Recalling the heartbreaking image of them chanting "viva" in a perfect order in a mass parade, I had this thought in my mind.

(Written by Yoshibumi Wakamiya, senior fellow of Japan Center for International Exchange and former chief editor of the Asahi Shimbun)