'Clinton has 76% chance of becoming next U.S. president'

'Clinton has 76% chance of becoming next U.S. president'. July. 21, 2016 06:56. by 한기재기자 record@donga.com.

Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent of chance winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 8, far ahead of the 24 percent of support won by the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

According to the result of the survey, Clinton was ahead of Trump in 28 eights where 347 delegates are at stakes. So far, those who have 270 or more of the total delegates. In the U.S. presidential election, a candidate wins the election when he or she wins votes from 270 delegates among a total of 538.

Clinton was expected to win in hotly contested states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida. The U.S. daily reported that Clinton had a 66 percent chance of winning in Iowa, 64 percent in Ohio and 61 percent in Florida, respectively. The newspaper reported that “Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw,” while noting that Trump’s chance of a victory was “quite possible.”

The Princeton Election Consortium and FiveThirtyEight, which use statistical models similar to one that is used by the New York Times, also predict that Clinton has an 82 percent and 64 percent, respectively, of winning the election. The Cook Political Report, which on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions, forecast the Democrat’s victory.

Clinton plans to announce her running mate on July 23 before the Democratic Party convention scheduled for July 25-28. The New York Times reported that James Stavridis, a retired four-star U.S. Navy admiral who served as the 16th supreme allied commander at NATO, and Senator Tim Kaine, a former Virginia governor who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, are the likely candidate for Clinton’s running mate.

The Washington Post predicted Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack will be her running mate. He served as governor of Iowa from 1999 to 2007. The Clinton camp expects that he will likely increase her chances of winning in the hotly contested state of Iowa in the main presidential elections.