Is the ruling party’s intended exaggeration?

Is the ruling party’s intended exaggeration?. April. 06, 2016 07:29. by 홍수영기자 gaea@donga.com. “It’s really tough. It’s extremely difficult in the Seoul metropolitan area.”

Lee Gun-hyun, a co-group head of the election campaign committee of the Saenuri Party, exaggerated the pain on Tuesday that his party is suffering in the run-up to the April 13 general elections. It was his response to the question raised by reporters about whether the party sees it difficult to win a majority of parliamentary seats (150 seats).  “After our two analyses on the prospects of the upcoming election, we found that our key supporting group turned their back to us and they indicated that they would not cast a vote," Kwon Seong-dong, the party’s strategic planning group head, told a radio show.
 
The ruling party declared “emergency” based on its own analysis that the party can hardly win a majority of seats. Some, however, say that it overreacted because the claim that the Saenuri Party is in a crisis has often emerged in the run-up to recent elections. They see that it is a strategic approach that would bring conservative supporting group that is rather complacent after the party’s win in the general elections in 2012 and the latest presidential election to polling stations.

The Saenuri Party reaped great benefits after using the same strategy for the 2014 local elections. Kim Moo-sung, the party’s leader, staged a “one-man protest” asking voters for help. As a result, the party won in local government head positions in highly competitive regions – Incheon, Gyeonggi and Jeju. In the 2012 general elections, the party stressed it was in a crisis, claiming that the opposition parties would win up to 190 seats. Back then, the Saenuri Party won a majority of seats with 152.
 
This strategy is also based on the painful memory of the local elections in 2010. Before the elections, the party dared to say, “We could expect a complete victory.” However, it lost almost all seats except for Seoul mayor.

"The ruling party’s claim that it is in a crisis seems to be a strategy to motivate conservative groups in the 50s and 60s to go to a polling station,” said Bae Jong-chan, a division chief at Research & Research.