`Pyongyang will have achieved greater sophistication in their bomb,` says expert

`Pyongyang will have achieved greater sophistication in their bomb,` says expert. January. 09, 2016 07:29. ddr@donga.com.

“While it’s much closer to a boosted fission bomb than to a hydrogen bomb, what is important is that North Korea’s test worked and they will have achieved greater sophistication in their bomb,” Siegfried Hecker (aged 73, photo), a professor at Stanford University and leading American expert on North Korean nuclear program said regarding North Korea’s 4th nuclear test.

He had served as a director at Los Alamos National Laboratory and set foot inside the Yongbyon nuclear facility at Pyongyang’s invitation. Inundated with interview requests by global media including the Dong-A Ilbo, Professor Hecker posted his views on North Korea’s recent nuclear test on the website of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) on Thursday. The followings are excerpts of his interview.

- Do you believe that North Korea actually detonated a hydrogen bomb in its latest nuclear test?

“I don’t believe it was a real hydrogen bomb, but my greatest concern is not so much whether or not they actually tested a hydrogen bomb, but rather that they tested at all. Since this test worked, they will have achieved greater sophistication in their bomb design. With each test they can learn a lot.”

- White House officials say that initial data from nearby monitoring stations are not consistent with a hydrogen bomb test. How will we know for sure whether it was a hydrogen bomb or not?

“The short answer is that we may never know. However, China’s early nuclear weapon program progressed rapidly. It tested its first fission bomb in 1964 and less than three years later demonstrated a hydrogen bomb—and that was 50 years ago. North Korea has now been in the nuclear testing business for almost 10 years, so we can’t rule anything out for certain.”

- How close is North Korea to being able to credibly threaten a nuclear strike against the mainland United States?

“North Korea is still a long way off from being able to strike the US mainland. It has only had one successful space launch (inter-continental ballistic missile or ICBM). It needs a lot more, but it has a large effort in that direction.”

- What are your current estimates on the size of North Korea`s stockpile of nuclear weapons and materials?

“Much like in the area of sophistication of the bomb, we have little information of what North Korea actually possesses. The best we can do is to estimate how much bomb fuel—plutonium and highly enriched uranium—they may have produced and estimate how many bombs they can produce from that stockpile. My best estimate at this time is that they may have enough bomb fuel for 18 bombs, with a capacity to make 6 to 7 more annually. That, combined with the increased sophistication they surely achieved with this test, paints a troublesome picture.”

- Do you think North Korea conducted this test for political or technical reasons?

“This test demonstrates that Pyongyang is willing to weather the political storm this test will bring. It has done so for all previous tests.”

- How should the United States respond?

“I am concerned about what we haven’t done to date. One thing that’s clear is that doing what we and the rest of the world have done so far—half-hearted diplomacy, ultimatums, and sanctions—have failed, so these are not the answer.”