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Now is not the time to give wrong signal to Pyongyang

Posted October. 24, 2016 07:19,   

Updated October. 24, 2016 07:26

한국어

Non-governmental American experts on North Korea and North Korean diplomats had a talk over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile tests in Kuala Lumpur on Friday and Saturday. The U.S. Department of State has said that the talk has nothing to do with Washington as it took place at the civilian level. However, it was practically an indirect dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea since Robert Gallucci who took the leading role in the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework and Joseph DeTrani who used to be former U.S. deputy nuclear negotiator for the six-party talks took part in the discussion.

North Korea’s vice foreign minister Han Song Ryol and deputy ambassador to the United Nations Jang Il Hun have repeatedly said that Pyongyang wants to be recognized with its nuclear power and wants to sign a peace treaty with the U.S. before it stops its nuclear and missile programs while the U.S. reiterates its position that scrapping nuclear program should come first. “It seems that some progress has been made. It is hoped that an official discussion begins with the new administration,” an attendee from America’s side explained, which is likely to bring about far-reaching consequences. American participants have experiences of direct negotiation with Pyongyang or place much importance on bilateral conversation. This means that if Democratic president candidate Hillary Clinton wins the election in November, they are likely to exercise their influence on Washington’s North Korean policy under the new administration.

Through the recent contact, the experts on the Korean Peninsula who are close to the U.S. Democratic Party and the North Korea seem to have tried to read each other’s mind under the assumption that Hillary Clinton becomes the next president. It’s highly unlikely that the Obama administration, which has shown strong stance against Pyongyang, changes its stance but South Korea needs to make a thorough preparation for any possibilities since no one can predict what will happen in the next U.S. administration.

This year’s Security Consultative Meeting between South Korea and the U.S. on Thursday didn’t include the permanent deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula on a rotational basis in its statement. Some see that the reason it was not clearly stated in spite of mutual agreement through preliminary briefing is that Washington felt some pressure that it might inflame China and would incur considerable cost. There is a possibility that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would make a misjudgment if Pyongyang and Washington wanted two different things for the talk this time.

During the Bill Clinton administration when North Korea and the U.S. used to have frequent conversations, there was continuous controversy over engagement with the U.S. while leaving out South Korea. In order to prevent the same controversy from being repeated in the next administration, Seoul and Washington are advised to make enough discussion and reach a consensus over exit strategy in putting pressure on Pyongyang. Now is not the time to give a wrong signal to North Korea.



한기흥기자 eligius@donga.com