Is North Korea weighing options for provocations?

On Oct. 10, the 71st anniversary of the foundation of the North Korean Workers’ Party, Pyongyang refrained from making any “strategic provocations” characterized by a nuclear test or launch of long-range missiles. Starting in early October, the intelligence authorities of South Korea and the U.S. have identified a significant increase in activities of the personnel and trucks at the nuclear test site of Punggye-ri in North Hamgyong Province, and at the missile launch site of Dongchang-ri in North Pyongan Province. Speculations had been made that the North would choose the foundation day of the Workers’ Party to conduct its 6th nuclear test and launch inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) on the same day. Aside from the fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9, however, there had been no precedent in which the North conducted a nuclear or missile provocation on a major national holiday.

North Korea’s provocations typically transpired before national holidays. In fact, Pyongyang began to make provocations at the U.S. and international community in earnest on Aug. 31, 1998, 10 days before the regime’s foundation day by blasting the Taepodong-1 missile. The six rounds of ICBM launch, which had been disguised as satellite launch, were all conducted before major national holidays. Nuclear tests were no exception. Except one out of the five tests, were all conducted precisely on or within four days around a major North Korean holiday.

Such a pattern is analyzed to signal the regime’s intention to maximize the morale and reinforce propaganda. The North avoids the exact holidays as they are an off-day, which makes it hard for broadcasting to have a great impact in disseminating the news on North Korean provocations.

However, experts say that South Korea should not lower its guard simply because the North did not make a provocation on its recent holiday. There is still a possibility that Pyongyang is testing the monitoring capacities of South Korea and the U.S. or waiting for an unexpected timing to maximize shock. December has a number of major holidays for the North to observe such as the memorial days of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (Dec. 29) and his father Kim Jong Il (Dec. 24) when each was crowed as supreme commander of North Korea. Speculation is being made that the North may engage in provocative activities on Dec. 17 this year, which will mark the fifth year of Kim Jong Il’s death.

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