66th anniversary of Korean War in Pyongyang

North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun on Thursday carried a photo of scene in which North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strongly hugs Ri Byong Chol, first vice chief of the Workers’ Party’s military industry department, who was seen weeping out of overflying excitement. The photo was taken while Kim was paying an inspection visit at a site near Wonsan, where the Musudan missile named the "Hwasong-1" was test fired. Kim was apparently overjoyed since test firing that had failed five times was successfully conducted at the sixth attempt. Kim Nak Kyom, commander of the strategic command who has been spearheading missile development, is also seen enthusiastically applauding. These acts apparently represent Pyongyang’s display of self-confidence that they have made great strides in nuclear armament despite sanctions and pressure from the international community.

The South Korean defense ministry on Friday announced the outcome of a simulation, which suggested that the Musudan missile that was fired by Pyongyang on Wednesday can have a maximum range of more than 3,500 kilometers. Since Pyongyang is now capable of striking the U.S. military base in Guam with its nuclear weapons, there could be problems with instant deployment of the U.S. military’ augmentation forces from the island onto the Korean Peninsula in the event of situation. Kim bragged that “We have now secured robust capability to practically strike in full scale American chaps within the scope of Pacific operation,” which is no longer merely exaggerated statement.

The South Korean military said since the drop velocity of the Musudan missile is Mach 14, the terminal high altitude area defense (THAAD) is capable of intercepting the missile. However, the Patriot missile (PAC-3) under the Korean Air Missile Defense (KAMD) system, which is under construction, offers the speeds of Mach 3.5 – 5, and hence cannot provide low-altitude defense. As such, the introduction of THAAD or the SM-3 surface-to-air missile for high-altitude defense has become imperative all the more.

The military was seen confused by suggesting the same analysis when the Japanese defense military said the North Korean missile reached an altitude of 1,000 kilometers, only to change its argument to say that the missile flew higher than 1,400 kilometers after the North claimed that the peak altitude amounted to 1,413.6 kilometers. The military made an excuse by saying the situation happened because it could not publicize the actual information including data from spy satellites from the U.S. However, it is doubtful whether the South Korean military has capability to independently monitor situations and trend in the North. However strong joint defense capability of Korea and the U.S. is, South Korea should not be depending on the U.S. forever.

The South needs remodeling of its national security that will drastically strengthen its defense capability to be able to independently counter the North’s nuclear weapons and missiles. The South should place top priority on fiscal investment in defense in order to sufficiently protect the lives and property of its people. Of course, it should thoroughly monitor and inspect defense spending to ensure that taxpayers’ money is not wasted due to ruinous corruptions in defense projects. However strongly Seoul pledges that it will sternly retaliate for Pyongyang’s provocations, it will be useless if the pledges end up being blank rhetoric. If the South fails to present any other solution beyond conventional strategy of ‘strengthening of the Korea-U.S. alliance” even after watching Kim Jong Un all smiles, the situation now is no different from the situation of defenselessness precisely 66 years ago, when the Korean War broke out.

한기흥기자 eligius@donga.com