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Signs detected the North is hesitant for a fifth nuclear test

Signs detected the North is hesitant for a fifth nuclear test

Posted May. 03, 2016 07:31,   

Updated May. 03, 2016 07:39

한국어
It appears that North Korea is hesitant to conduct its fifth nuclear test before the opening of the 7th Congress of the Workers’ Party on May 6. While signs of an impending nuclear test were detected one after another across Puggye-ri, Gilju in North Hamgyong Province, over the last two months, the North keeps on firing ballistic missiles instead of pushing the "red button."

After the failed launch of a Musudan Inter-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) on the Day of the Sun (birth of North Korea Founder Kim Il sung) on April 15, the regime lost face again as it botched yet another launch of (2 missiles) merely two weeks after.

Against this backdrop, speculation is being raised that the North is concerned about the potentially grave consequences of another nuclear test. Given that the country has been dealt a hard diplomatic blow after the UNSC sanctions were adopted in the wake of the fourth nuclear test, experts say North Korea is gripped by a sense of crisis that even harsher sanctions, such as a complete shutdown of oil supplies which might be prompted by pressing ahead with a fifth nuclear test, could pose a serious threat to the existence of the regime.

Another analysis holds that the North is under significant pressure after Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of a full implementation of the UNSC sanctions against North Korea. “It is possible that the North regime is testing the waters on the strong diplomatic stance of China by firing Musudan missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) instead of conducting another nuclear test,” said a military official.

For those reasons, the observation is made that the North could postpone the nuclear test until after the upcoming party congress. Having flexed its nuclear muscles against the U.S. with the fourth nuclear test in January and the missile launch in February, Pyongyang may well use the fifth nuclear test as a bargaining chip aimed at the U.S. presidential election late this year.